Political science and election science, as social sciences, are sandwiched between the desire for mathematical exactness and methodological limitations to measuring human behaviour. In other words: political scientists, much like economists, want to give precise answers by relying on data but people’s preferences for candidates and their political points of view are difficult to measure.…… Continue reading Is Jeb Bush toast? Hard data and historical insights suggest the opposite

Jeb Bush’s campaign isn’t doing very well, with Bush garnering support among fewer than 10% of GOP primary voters. A lot has been made already about the nice, polite schoolboy who does not want to get down and dirty with the school bully. The thing is, the polite ‘young man’ is also trailing behind Ben…… Continue reading Even Barbara Bush didn’t want Jeb to run